After American Primacy by Peter J. Dean

Author:Peter J. Dean [Dean, Peter J. Frühling, Stephan Taylor, Brendan]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9780522874556
Publisher: Melbourne University Publishing

Is grand bargain in Asia likely?

The election of the deal-making US president who revels in breaking conventional wisdom presents a moment unlike any other in the post-war period to imagine a radically different path for the US regional role. From full-scale withdrawal to a grand bargain, almost everything seemed possible in those months that followed the improbable result of 8 November 2016.

A grand bargain is not a new thing in Asia; indeed the period of peace that followed from the Sino-US rapprochement is in many respects one of the great examples of the genre. And as this chapter has explored, a grand bargain presents a number of promising paths towards creating a new and stable setting. The region is in a period of increasing competition driven by contests not only about clashes of interest but also about visions for the region’s future articulated by the major powers. Without at the very least recognising the incommensurable qualities of China and the United States’ respective preferred regional futures, then contestation will surely follow. A grand bargain presents a way to break the current cycle and make the kind of necessary mutual concessions to carve out space for the two major powers and their partners and allies. Indeed, for some a bargain presents the only way in which a contested and conflict-prone regional order can be avoided.

Given the promise and potential, is a bargain likely or indeed even plausible? While the benefits are real and the prospects better than they might have been under President Obama or a hypothetical President Hillary Clinton, it remains a very low-probability event in the short to medium term. There are a number of primary reasons for this. The first is the high level of inertia at play in the United States, especially about strategic policy in the region as a whole. While Trump himself might, at least very briefly, take the United States to the brink of the idea of such a move, as we have seen with his policy in the region to date, much of the remaining key elements of the security policy part of his administration have no appetite for a shift in overall regional posture. Equally, Trump has laid out a vision for a significant expansion of US military power and presence and has not articulated any view for a shift in either the distribution of that power or the broader purpose it might serve. That leaves the prospects of striking a bargain, from the US side, unlikely.

Finally, while domestic politics in the United States remains largely detached from US foreign and strategic policy—with the exception of crises and conflict—the electoral risk that would be taken by pursuing a grand bargain would be extremely high. It is unthinkable for a Republican with Trump’s strong-man domestic political persona to direct a retrenchment of US power. Obama is likely to be viewed as the most cautious and moderate US foreign policy president of the post-war era.

The calculus for a grand bargain from Beijing’s perspective is a little different from Washington’s.

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